« the commons and economic equality | Main | the youth vote: a final thought »
November 9, 2004
latest on the youth vote
We've had a wild week at CIRCLE. Many early news stories claimed that youth turnout was 17% (for under-30s) or 10% (for under-25s). Many reporters and pundits (especially on TV) concluded that just one in ten young people had participated. Academic experts were fed that number and asked to comment; they opined sagely about the fecklessness of youth. In fact, these statistics represent young people's share of the electorate. Turnout--which means the percentage of young citizens who voted--was 52% for under 30s and 42.3% for under 25s. In other words, more than half of people under the age of 30 voted, reversing more than 12 years of decline and surpassing all reasonable expectations. Their share was unchanged from 2000 because all age groups voted at higher rates, although the change for young people was proportionately higher (the same percentage-point change on a smaller base).
We struggled hard to change the dominant news story, and began to succeed by the end of the week. Just for instance, I'm quoted in today's Washington Post as part of a positive and accurate story. Meanwhile, we have been able to conduct more fine-grained analysis. According to a fact sheet that we released this morning (see pdf):
There are still people saying that Kerry lost because young people didn't turn out for him. For instance, Bob Herbert speculates that the Democrats would have won if "those younger voters had actually voted. ..." We are a nonpartisan organization, and our concern is youth participation, not helping Democrats. However, I would say this to the Dems: 1) Young people did turn out. 2) They chose Kerry by a fairly narrow margin, as everyone's pre-election polling had predicted. After all, they are politically diverse. 3) All older groups preferred Bush. So blaming young people for failing to vote just won't wash.
November 9, 2004 11:25 AM | category: none
Comments
It's about time this story began turning around! It's frustrating how persistent those initial misinformed impressions can be...of course, that is the phenomenon that effective "rapid response" political campaigning trades upon!
--Brad
November 9, 2004 11:51 AM | Comments (1) | posted by Brad Rourke